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Returns to Congress after resigning from Governor's seat in 2009
I received the news about the outcome of the special election in my home district at a peculiar time. I was in the middle of an episode of “House of Cards.” My phone buzzed. “Your boy from SC won his seat back?” a friend texted, referring to Republican Mark Sanford’s victory Tuesday night over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch for a House seat from South Carolina. My friend has known I’ve often felt like a one-woman diplomatic envoy in D.C., attempting to explain the rationale of my fellow Carolinians to those unfamiliar with the southern Lowcountry.
I returned to watching Rep. Francis Underwood (Kevin Spacey), who was in his home district of Gaffney, S.C. While attempting to placate some of his constituents, Underwood turned to the camera — a style frequently used on the show — and spoke directly to the audience. “What you have to understand about my people is that they are a noble people. Humility is their form of pride. It is their strength; it is their weakness. And if you can humble yourself before them they will do anything you ask.”
The lines were so haunting, so apropos I could have sworn Mark Sanford was voicing them directly to me from my MacBook. I replayed the scene again. And again, making sure it was not the real congressman-elect uttering those words. That deep-seated cultural humility is the missing element that outside observers miss when trying to explain the outcome for the 1st Congressional District in South Carolina. It would’ve been miraculous for a Democrat like Colbert Busch to have won in this deep red district. But the truth is that the majority of voters there would rather a weeping Mark Sanford, hat in hand, acknowledging his imperfections than a polished business woman who has a famous, wealthy brother. No question.
If anything, the marital problems and mid-life breakdown ingratiated the former governor to South Carolinians. What people loved about him from his years in Congress was his ability to remain humble. He slept in his office. He carried pigs onto the House floor. He made campaign signs from plywood. His literal fall from the opulence in the Governor’s mansion only furthered his cause in the eyes of many. And Sandford was happy to oblige. The race felt as if he was groveling for a chance to return to his former job. And if he stumbles again, will it be all the more endearing to South Carolina voters? Probably.
Click for issue stances of Representative-Elect Mark Sanford (R, SC) or excerpts from the South Carolina race
Gomez and Markey win; and the rest of the 2013 list
2013 is an "off-year" for elections, but there are still plenty of races to cover....
Click for House coverage, Senate coverage, and Gubernatorial coverage
Sixth term ends in 2014
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) is retiring rather than seek re-election in 2014. First elected in 1978, Baucus has been the top Democrat on the powerful committee since 2001. The likely Democratic candidate to succeed him would be former governor Brian Schweitzer, sources said.
At times infuriating his Democratic colleagues, Baucus worked with Republicans to co-write the Bush-era tax cuts and the Medicare prescription drug plan, but he also served as the lead defender against George W. Bush’s 2005 effort to partially privatize Social Security and played a critical role in writing President Obama’s national health-care plan. From conservative-leaning Montana, Baucus has voted against Democratic initiatives on some social issues, most recently last week’s effort to create an expanded background check system for gun purchases.
The Baucus retirement also could have dramatic policy ramifications. No longer bounded by his own 2014 re-election, Baucus can now push for comprehensive tax reform without concerns about the political ramifications, his allies say.
Click for full voting record of Max Baucus (D, MT).
Special election winner Robin Kelly (D, IL) sworn in
Former Illinois State Rep. Robin Kelly was sworn in Thursday as the new congresswoman in the 2nd District, two days after winning an easy victory in the special election to replace the disgraced Jesse Jackson Jr.
She was sworn in twice--once officially by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and once ceremonially by Vice President Joe Biden. In her comments in the House, she stressed her commitment to combating gun violence, passing comprehensive immigration legislation, creating jobs and improving the health care system.
"I ran for Congress so that I could work to bring about a safer, less violent and more prosperous future, one in which our children can grow up without the fear of gun violence," she said on the House floor after taking the oath of office.
Click for issue stances of Robin Kelly (D, IL).
Open Senate in Nebraska in 2014
Nearly four years after a vanishing act that led to revelations of an extramarital affair with an Argentine woman, the former South Carolina governor has won the GOP nomination for a House seat he once occupied. And during his victory speech, his former mistress--now his fiancee--stood smiling at his side.
If he achieves his quest for redemption by defeating Democratic nominee Elizabeth Colbert Busch, Sanford will join a string of politicians who have bounced back from disgrace or disaster for impressive second act, from Richard Nixon to Jerry Brown.
Sanford has stressed his fiscal conservatism while agreeing to discuss his past, at least in general terms. He ran a campaign ad in which he talked about learning "how none of us go through life without mistakes" and his belief in a "God of second chances."
"The events of 2009 absolutely represent a failure on my part for which there were and always will be at some level consequences," Sanford said at last week's debate. "But that does not mean because you've had a failure in your personal life, that you cannot step back into life again."
Click for issue stances of Gov. Mark Sanford (R, SC)
Supreme Court ruling expected in May or June
Several establishment Democrats and Republicans have "come out" this week in support of gay marriage, surrounding the Supreme Court hearing two major cases on the issue. The Supreme Court heard cases on the Defense of Marriage Act (the federal ban on gay marriage) and Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in California.
Click for previous Supreme Court coverage
Seventh term ends in 2014
Carl Levin sent political shock waves through the state when he announced Thursday that he would not run for a seventh term.
Even with the suggestion weeks ago that Levin might not run, U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, a Cascade Township Republican, had floated the idea of running to supporters. A spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Levin leaving "offers us a real pickup opportunity."
Democrats might be quick to point out, though, that though Republicans have won statewide in other seats, including governor and attorney general, a Republican hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, when Spencer Abraham was elected to a single term. The woman who beat him, Democrat Debbie Stabenow, is now poised to become the state's senior senator.
Levin's older brother, Sander Levin, 81, represents the 9th Congressional District and lives in Royal Oak. He is the ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee.
Levin becomes the sixth member of the Senate to announce he will not run for re-election next year, joining Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, Mike Johanns, R-Neb., Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., and Jay Rockefeller, D-W. Va. At present, Democrats hold 53 seats in the chamber, with two Independents caucusing with them, to 45 Republicans. In 2014, 20 seats currently held by Democrats will be open and 13 seats held by Republicans will be.
Click for full voting record of Carl Levin (D, MI).
President Obama selects head of EPA and Energy Dept.
President Obama nominated two new Cabinet members; below is the list of 2013 changes in the Cabinet:
Click for full list of Cabinet members and their issue stances
Open Senate in Nebraska in 2014
Nebraska Sen. Mike Johanns, who was a safe bet to win a second term in 2014, announced Monday that he would forgo re-election. Republicans are heavily favored to hold the open seat in the conservative state.
Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R) is term-limited from seeking re-election in 2014 and is considered a likely candidate in the race to replace Johanns. If Heineman doesn’t run, the GOP faces the prospect of a crowded and bruising primary.
The two men who lost to now-Sen. Deb Fischer in the 2012 primary are likely to look at the race: state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg, the quintessential tea party candidate in 2012. Also mentioned is businessman Pete Ricketts, who lost to then-Sen. Ben Nelson (D) in 2006.
Click for issue stances of Mike Johanns (R, NE)
President Obama announces second term agenda
President Obama delivered the first State of the Union address of his second term, outlining his agenda for the second term, with particular emphasis on the economy, energy, and gun control. The mainstream media focused on First Lady Michelle Obama's new bangs.
Senator Marco Rubio delivered the official Republican Party response to the President, and Senator Rand Paul delivered the Tea Party response. Both highighted the need for less government as the means to end the Great Recession, in contrast to Obama's call for additional stimulus spending and additional taxes. The mainstream media focused on how Sen. Rubio reached for a glass of water in the middle of his speech.
Coverage of the State of the Union address from Examiner.com:
Coverage of the State of the Union address from The Atlantic Magazine:
Click for full excerpts of Obama's speech and the GOP response
25 governors' speeches from January
President Obama's State of the Union speech will occur next week on Tuesday, Feb. 12. But Governors' State of the State speeches are well under way already.
We excerpt 25 governors' state of the state speeches which took place in January, 2013. Two dozen more are scheduled for February and later; we'll excerpt those too.
Click for State of the State speech excerpts or OnTheIssues list of all Governors
Interim appointment until June 25 special election
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has picked William “Mo” Cowan, his former chief of staff, to serve as the state’s interim US senator until the successor to John F. Kerry is chosen by the voters in a June 25 special election. The temporary post will make him the first African-American to represent Massachusetts in the Senate since Edward Brooke held the seat as a Republican from 1966 to 1978.
In choosing Cowan, Patrick rejected former US representative Barney Frank’s request to be given the job. A primary election for the seat is set for April 30 and US Representative Edward Markey is so far the only high-profile Democrat to formally enter the race.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Jan. 30); Washington Examiner (Jan. 27)
Click for 2014 Senate races
or 2013-2014 House of Representatives
Jay Rockefeller (D, WV) first Senator to announce retirement plans for 2014
Editorial: As [West Virginians] reflect on Sen. Jay Rockefeller's announcement last Friday that he will not seek re-election in 2014, we hope they pause to remember the many contributions he has made to the Mountain State and the nation, for almost 30 years as one of the state's two senators, and before that as governor and secretary of state.
While Rockefeller has done much good, he has continued to stray from the beliefs of many of his constituents, and there are those who felt he would face a difficult re-election had he decided to pursue it. Whether that, or his proclaimed need to spend more time with family and other projects, is the real reason for his decision, his early announcement leaves many to question how will he spend the next two years of his term.
Will he continue to move further left, as he's demonstrated with his support of Obama's Affordable Care Act (a highly unpopular law in the Mountain State)? Or will he more closely represent his constituents, even though he has nothing to fear now that he won't be seeking office again? It would be hard not to respect what he's done for West Virginians. However, that respect could be tarnished if the senator spends the remainder of his term propagating his own agenda at the expense of state residents' concerns and beliefs.
OnTheIssues.org is now fully prepared for the 2014 Senate races. Our 2013-2014 Senate page includes the list of 33 Senators up for re-election in 2014, plus their likely opponents (including Rep. Capito in WV and all other possible opponents).
If you think it's ridiculously early to start considering the 2014 elections, please see our page for the 113th Senate as elected. It contains only the newly-elected Senators from the November elections, plus those re-elected and those serving in the Senate since the January 2013 swearing-in (that's called the "113th Congress").
Click for 2014 Senate races
or U.S. Senate as sworn in, Jan. 3, 2013
Former Senator Hagel (R, NE) nominated by Obama
President Obama today rounded out his second-term national security team, nominating former Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel to head the Department of Defense and counterterrorism adviser John Brennan to lead the CIA.
Obama's selection of Hagel is expected to trigger a political storm over his confirmation in the Senate, where a bipartisan group of critics has already lined up against the pick. The criticism stems from Hagel's controversial past statements on foreign policy, including a 2008 reference to Israel's U.S. supporters as "the Jewish lobby," public encouragement of negotiations between the United States, Israel and Hamas, a Palestinian group the State Department classifies as terrorists, and his stance on how to deal with Iran. "Hagel has consistently been against economic sanctions to try to change the behavior of the Islamist regime, the radical regime in Tehran, which is the only way to do it, short of war," Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., said last month. The Nebraska Republican has also drawn fire for his outspoken opposition to the 2003 U.S.-led war in Iraq and the subsequent troop "surge" ordered by then-President George W. Bush in 2007, which has been credited with helping bring the war to a close.
On the left, gay rights groups have criticized Hagel for comments he made in 1998 disparaging then-President Bill Clinton's nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg James Hormel as "openly, aggressively gay." Hagel has since apologized for the remark as "insensitive." Giving nod to some of Hagel's more controversial views, Obama even praised Hagel's "willingness to speak his mind even if it wasn't popular, defied conventional wisdom."
In an interview with his hometown paper, the Lincoln Journal Star, Hagel today launched a rebuttal to critics, whom he said have "completely distorted his record." He said the confirmation process will allow him to show his "unequivocal, total support for Israel" and support for sanctions on Iran.
Hagel is a decorated Vietnam veteran and businessman who served in the senate from 1997 to 2009.
Click for issue stances of Former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R, NE)
82 new House members and 13 new Senators
The outgoing 112th Congress was panned by pundits and Americans alike, with approval ratings as low as 12%. But 95% of members who made it to the ballot retained their seats. The new incoming class features a record number of female (100), Latino (31), Asian American (12) and openly gay or bisexual (7) members, along with 43 African Americans.
And while a great many of those serving the previous two years are returning, the 113th Congress' class of more than 90 new lawmakers features plenty of historical firsts, including enough new women, LGBT members, Asian Americans and Latinos to set records.
There are 82 new members of the House -- 35 Republicans and 47 Democrats -- and 13 new senators, including appointee Tim Scott, R-S.C., who will be the upper chamber's only African-American. Scott, an appointee who replaces Jim DeMint, will be the first black senator from the South since Blanche Bruce of Mississippi in 1881 and the first Republican African-American senator since the 1970s.
Republican Ted Cruz, a Cuban-American who beat Texas's lieutenant governor in an upset primary, is the first Latino to represent the diverse state of Texas in the Senate.
Massachusetts' Elizabeth Warren, who became a folk hero among financial system reformers after the financial crisis, will sit on the Senate's banking committee. She's one of a record 20 women in the new Senate.
Six of the new senators came from service in the U.S. House, including former Rep. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, the first Asian-American woman to serve in the upper chamber. (She's also the first Buddhist.)
Arizona's Jeff Flake will join six other Mormon colleagues in the upper chamber.
All told, the partisan breakdown will narrow slightly in Democrats' favor. In the House, there will be a total of 233 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and two vacancies (likely to be filled by one Republican and one Democrat, respectively.)
In the Senate, Democrats will continue to control the Senate--but with a slightly larger 55-45 majority than the 112th, counting Sens. Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine), who will caucus with the Democratic Party. Republicans lost two seats, and Democrats gained two, including the closely-watched race in Massachusetts between Elizabeth Warren and departing Sen. Scott Brown.
Joins Senate immediately; will become Hawaii's Senior Senator in January
U.S. Sen.-designate Brian Schatz left for Washington aboard Air Force One tonight after he was selected by Gov. Neil Abercrombie to replace the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye. Schatz, 40, will be sworn in Thursday so he can participate in Senate votes to avert a fiscal cliff of federal tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January.
Abercrombie chose Schatz from a list of recommendations from the Democratic Party of Hawaii that included U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and and Esther Kiaaina, the deputy director of the state Department of Land and Natural Resources. Inouye had asked Abercrombie to name Hanabusa, who represents urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District, as his "last wish" before he died last week at 88 of respiratory complications. "Having served as chair of the Hawaii Senate Judiciary Committee when the succession law was passed, I fully respect the process and the governor's right to appoint a successor," Hanabusa said in a news release.
Schatz will become the state's senior senator. U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono, who was elected in November to replace the retiring U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, would be the junior senator. Schatz will serve until voters in 2014 elect a senator to fill out the remainder of Inouye's six-year term, which runs through 2016. Schatz said he plans to run in 2014 and in 2016.
Click for issue stances of Sen. Brian Schatz (D, HI)
Gov. Deval Patrick (D, MA) to appoint successor
President Obama nominated Kerry as the next secretary of state, a post friends and colleagues say he is well-suited for. The son of a Foreign Service officer has thought deeply about matters of war and peace, and has logged thousands of hours traveling the globe on various diplomatic quests. As a boy living in Europe during the Cold War, Kerry biked around communist East Germany despite his father’s warnings and hunted for D-Day casings on the beaches of Normandy. Those close to him said they believe he made a conscious decision after the 2004 presidential race to leverage his new influence in the international arena.
Gov. Deval Patrick wants the next interim senator to pledge not to run in the upcoming special election — adding he expects to name someone to the temporary spot “pretty quickly” after U.S. Sen. John Kerry is confirmed as Secretary of State by the Senate. “I expect to appoint someone who does not plan to run for the seat because, practically, I think that’s going to be hard for that person to do successfully,” said Patrick. He refused to rule out the possibility that the appointee may also run, however.
Gov. Patrick has spoken with the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s widow, Vicki Kennedy, about the appointment. “Those conversations are in the spirit of confidentiality and I will respect that confidentiality,” said Patrick. In addition to Kennedy’s name, former Gov. Michael Dukakis and the retiring U.S. Rep. Barney Frank have been mentioned for the appointment. Patrick will not name a temporary appointment until after Kerry is confirmed by the Senate, which is likely after Jan. 3. The special election won’t start until Kerry hands in his letter of resignation.
A WBUR poll of 500 registered voters finds voters view Sen. Scott_Brown favorably, despite the fact that in November they chose to elect Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren in his stead. [The poll] matched him up theoretically against U.S. Reps. Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch and former U.S. Rep. Marty Meehan, and in each one of those cases, Brown led by between 17 and 19 points. Lynch did issue a statement saying if a Senate seat were to become available, he “would give serious consideration to running.”
Click for issue stances of Sen. John Kerry (D, MA)
or Sen. Scott_Brown (R, MA)
Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D, HI) to appoint successor
Daniel K. Inouye died today of a respiratory ailment at a Bethesda, Md., hospital, ending a life of remarkable service for his country and Hawaii that included sacrificing his right arm in World War II combat and spending 50 years as a U.S. senator. He was 88. His last words were, "Aloha."
In a letter to Gov. Neil Abercrombie that was delivered at 11 a.m. on Monday, just hours before his death, Senator Daniel Inouye apologized for his inability to fulfill his term and made a request for his successor to the United States Senate, according to Senator Inouye's office. Inouye's representatives said that his last wish was for U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to replace him, citing her intellect and presence and saying it would be a seamless transition if he were to choose her. By law, the state Democratic party will submit three names to Abercrombie for consideration.
As the most-senior member of the majority party, Inouye served as Senate Pro Tempore, making him third in line to the presidency behind Vice President Biden and House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio). Less than two hours after Inouye’s died, the Senate passed a resolution naming Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) as the new president pro tempore. Leahy was first elected to the Senate in 1974.
In other Senate news, Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Scott will become the first African-American senator from the South since the late 19th century after he was chosen Monday by Gov. Nikki Haley to fill Jim DeMint’s soon-to-be-vacated seat.
Click for issue stances of Daniel Inouye (D, HI)
or Rep. Colleen Hanabusa
Runoff election decided on Dec. 8, 2012
In Louisiana's 3rd District runoff election, four-term Congressman Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, beat freshman Tea Party member Jeff Landry, R-New Iberia, by a healthy margin. Boustany received 61 percent and over 58,000 votes in the district, which was redrawn after a 2010 census showed a population slowdown in the state. Fellow Republican incumbent Rep. Landry received 39 percent and over 37,000 votes.
Boustany's victory represents another victory for the Republican rank-and-file over its right flank, piggybacking on several GOP establishment and Democratic wins over Tea Party candidates on Nov. 6.
Landry was heavily favored by Tea Party groups and picked up several key conservative endorsements, including the now-split FreedomWorks, Citizens United, Tea Party Nation and the Family Research Council, which hosts the annual Value Voters Summit. Meanwhile, Boustany has been able to grab some key local endorsements, including Louisiana House of Representatives Speaker Chuck Kleckley, state legislators from both sides of the aisle and various mayors and local officials.
* * *
Both Reps. Boustany and Landry are currently serving in the "lamw duck" session of Congress. Four special election winners have also been seated in the "lame duck" session; please see OnTheIssues' coverage of the special election newcomers' sponsorships and the lame duck bills.
Click for issue stances of Charles Boustany or Jeff Landry,
or coverage of the 2012 lame duck session
Will take $1 million think tank salary, leaving SC taxpayers with Special Election bill
DeMint announced Thursday that he would resign to become president of the Heritage Foundation. The move puts DeMint at the head of the most prominent conservative nonprofit organization in Washington. DeMint’s decision marks a monumental change from a not-so-long-ago era when abandoning a prime perch in the Senate to head a think tank would have been unthinkable. But the past decade has shown the influence that figures outside of elected office — whether tea party leaders or anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist — can have on the conservative movement.
DeMint’s job at Heritage will almost certainly come with a great deal more money than his $174,000 Senate salary. The terms of his deal are unknown, but the man DeMint will replace, Edwin Feulner, makes more than $1 million a year.
DeMint retires from the Senate having exerted an enormous amount of influence on the institution — yet without ever having passed a single piece of significant legislation. Rather than rising up the Senate ranks to influence legislation, DeMint chose to be a cheerful starter of civil wars. With his Senate Conservatives Fund, DeMint assembled candidates and money to wage primary fights against establishment Republicans he deemed insufficiently conservative.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will appoint someone to fill the seat until a special election in 2014. She could appoint herself, or buy some time by appointing someone who is seen as having no ambition to run in 2014—such as David Wilkins, a well-liked and respected former state lawmaker who served as U.S. ambassador to Canada under President George W. Bush.
But conservatives are urging her to name someone who would be interested in keeping the seat. A popular pick would be Rep. Tim Scott, who could become the only current black U.S. senator at a time when the GOP is trying to reach out to minorities.
Click for issue stances of Sen. Jim DeMint
or his book Saving Freedom
Organizatonal ratings of all incoming House members
OnTheIssues has gathered issue stance summaries by several 2012 rating organizations. All of the organizations rated some or all of the 2013 newly incoming House members.
We also include older ratings from the same organizations, for comparison. When the organization's ratings are identical from year to year, we just include the newly-elected people with a new date on the old page. When the rating system differs, we include both pages separately. For example, the new "NARAL" page is just endorsements; the older one rates every member on a 0% to 100% scale.
Click for our organizatonal ratings notebook
or click for incoming House Freshmen.
Kay Hagan (D, NC) in; Jay Rockefeller (D, WV) undecided
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) told a local radio station she plans to run for reelection in 2014, when she is expected to be a top target of Republicans. In 2012, North Carolina voted for Mitt Romney, elected a Republican governor and netted the GOP at least three House seats.
Sen Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) said Tuesday that he hasn’t decided whether he will run for reelection in 2014. “I’ll make that decision in time,” Rockefeller said, without offering specifics. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) announced Monday that she will run for Rockefeller’s seat.
OnTheIssues.org is now prepared for the 2014 Senate races. Our 2013-2014 Senate page includes the list of 33 Senators up for re-election in 2014, plus their likely opponents (including Rep. Capito in WV, and Sen. Hagan's possible opponents in NC).
If you think it's ridiculously early to start considering the 2014 elections, please see our page for the 113th Senate as elected. It contains only the newly-elected Senators from the November elections, plus those re-elected and those serving in the Senate which will be sworn in, come January 2013 (that's called the "113th Congress").
Click for 2014 Senate races
or U.S. Senate as elected Nov. 6, 2012
Gov. Pat Quinn (D, IL) to set a special election date in 2013
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. resigned from Congress on Wednesday, ending a once-promising political career. House Speaker John Boehner has received Jackson's letter of resignation, a Boehner spokesman said.
Jackson, the son of the civil rights leader, was first elected in 1995. He has been on medical leave since mid-June and twice sought treatment at the Mayo Clinic for bipolar disorder. The Democrat was easily re-elected to a ninth full term on Election Day, even though his constituents haven't seen or heard from him in months.
Once considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, Jackson is being investigated on allegations that he misused campaign funds; any deal would likely include jail time. He also has been the subject of a long-running House Ethics Committee investigation stemming from allegations that he raised money for then-Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich in exchange for appointment to the U.S. Senate. Jackson has denied wrongdoing.
Click for issue stances of Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D, IL-2)
or Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.
35 new Republicans; 49 new Democrats (final count)
There are still several House races being recounted, but OnTheIssues has set up issue coverage for all of the incoming members of the United States House of Representatives.
The final count is 35 new Republicans and 49 new Democrats -- we'll be filling in all of their contacts and issue stances over the next week or two -- plus filling in the several undecided race results.
Following are the most interesting new House members, in three categories:
35 newly-elected Republicans in 2012, and 49 newly-elected Democrats.
For comparison, in the previous House election, 94 new House members were elected. Not significantly more -- but the party balance was significantly different:
85 newly-elected Republicans in 2010, and only 9 newly-elected Democrats.
In other words, the 2010 House elections showed a very strong pro-Republican leaning; while the 2012 House elections showed a weaker -- but still significant -- pro-Democratic leaning.
These final House election results mean the 113th Congress (beginning in January 2013) will be divided 234 Republicans to 201 Democrats. OnTheIssues predicted 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, so we were only off by one out of 435 seats!
|Preliminary House results: Nov. 12, 2012|
The Republicans held control of the U.S. House 240-190 before the election; the Democrats had a net gain of about 5 seats, so the 113th Senate, starting in January 2013, will still be controlled by the Republicans. (OnTheIssues predicted a net gain of 7 seats for the Democrats). The exact number is still not yet known because of several ongoing recounts; and the 3rd Louisiana House district will conduct a Dec. 8 runoff election.
The table below indicates, by category, the number of seats that changed hands in this election (with asterisks* indicating the races still undecided at this time).
|Counts by category:||Democratic gains||Republican gains||Commentary|
|Electoral takeovers: (Incumbent ran and lost to the opposing party)||+18: CA-7, CA-36, CA-52, FL-18, FL-26, IL-8, IL-10, IL-13, IL-17, MD-6, MN=8, NH-1, NH-2, NY-18, NY-25, OH-3, TX-23||+6: AR-4, CA-8, CA-21, FL-3, IN-2, NC-13, OK-2, PA-4||This is a strong showing for the Democrats -- these are the hardest seats to win, since the incumbent is defending an existing seat. This category indicates that overall, this election shows the country agrees more with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party in 2012.|
|Redistricting gains: (New seats due to 2010 census)||+3: AZ-9*, FL-22, NV-4||+7: AR-4, CA-8, CA-21, FL-3, IN-2, NC-13, OK-2, PA-4||This category indicates that demographics are shifting towards the Republicans -- i.e., red states are gaining population relative to blue states, and hence there are more GOP districts. Many of the "open seats" in the next category were open partly because of redistricting also -- many incumbents faced an election battle and hence retired -- so redistricting effects are even more widespread than directly indicated.|
|Open seat takeovers: (Incumbent retired, but newly elected member is of the opposing party)||+5: AZ-1, CA-26, CA-29, CA-41, FL-9||+8: GA-9, IA-8, MO-3, SC-7, TX-33, TX-34, TX-36, UT-2||In a typical election, the party of the retiring incumbent strongly favors that the successor is of the same party. That did not happen in 2012. Some of these changes indicate a demographic switch, and some indicate a more partisan electorate.|
|Retentions: (Incumbent retired, and newly elected member is of the same party)||19: AZ-8*, CA-2, CA-5, CA-47, CA-51*, HI-2, IL-12, MA-4, MI-5, NV-1, NJ-10, NY-5, NY-10, PA-17, TX-16, TX-20, WA-1, WA-6, WI-2||16: AZ-5, CA-1, FL-6, FL-19, IL-15, IN-5, IN-6, KY-4, MO-2, MT-0, NC-9, ND-0, OH-2, OH-14, OK-1, TX-14||This is what normally happens when an incumbent retires: a replacement wins from the same party. These districts are all new faces in the U.S. House but do not affect the party balance.|
|Totals:||+26 new Democrats
plus 19 replacement Democrats
|+21 new Republicans
plus 16 replacement Republicans
|Net change is about +5 Democrats
with 82 new members regardless of party.
Is this a Democratic "mandate"? No, not quite -- maybe more of a "message" about hyper-partisanship. The Democrats needed 25 seats to win control of the House -- THAT would have been a mandate! Even if all of the redistricting changes are ignored -- and we assume that all open seat takeovers were due to demographic changes from redistricting -- the Democrats would still have gained only 12 seats -- not nearly enough to take over control of the House.
Overall we will see about 82 new faces in the U.S. House of Representatives (we'll report the exact number, and rework our House member list, when the final tallies are completed). But it's not actually 82 NEW faces, because 8 of the incoming "freshmen" have been in the U.S. House before! They were re-elected after having been out of Congress, usually returning by taking advantage of some redistricting changes. They are:
|Gubernatorial results: Nov. 9, 2012|
The recounts are completed for all 11 gubernatorial elections that took place on Election Day:
|State||Newly-elected Governor||Outgoing Governor|
|IN||Mike Pence (R)||Mitch Daniels (R)|
|NC||Pat McCrory (R)||Bev Perdue (D)|
|NH||Maggie Hassan (D)||John Lynch (D)|
|MT||Steve Bullock (D)||Brian Schweitzer (D)|
|WA||Jay Inslee (D)||Christine Gregoire (D)|
|DE||Jack Markell (D)|
|MO||Jay Nixon (D)|
|ND||Jack Dalrymple (R)|
|UT||Gary Herbert (R)|
|VT||Peter Shumlin (D)|
|WV||Earl Ray Tomblin (D)|
|Final Senate results: Nov. 8, 2012|
The Democrats held control of the U.S. Senate 53-47 before the election; the Democrats had a net gain of one or two seats, so the 113th Senate, starting in January 2013, will still be controlled by the Democrats, 55-45.
Senator-Elect Angus King (I-ME) has not stated with which party he will caucus; if he decides on the Republican Party, that would reduce the Democratic majority to 54-46 but would not change majority control. Majority control determines which party chairs each Senate committee, and hence which bills get debated on the Senate floor.
OnTheIssues predicted a Democratic majority of 50-50 (with V.P. Joe Biden casting the majority vote for the Democrats; we predicted the Presidential race correctly also). We were wrong in our prediction of 7 Senate races -- but right in 26 out of the 33 Senate races (a rate of 79% correct!), and right in predicting the Senate majority. Mostly, we over-predicted the number of Republican takeovers. The Republican Senate candidates did not do nearly as well as expected; hence the Democrats held on to many seats. Our prediction compared to actual results:
|State||Party Result||Election Winner||Election Loser|
|AZ||Republican retention||Jeff Flake||Richard Carmona|
|CT||Democratic retention||Chris Murphy||Linda McMahon|
|FL||Democratic retention||Bill Nelson||Connie Mack IV|
|IN||Democratic takeover||Joe Donnelly||Richard Mourdock|
|MT||Democratic retention||Jon Tester||Denny Rehberg|
|NE||Republican takeover||Deb Fischer||Bob Kerrey|
|NM||Democratic retention||Martin Heinrich||Heather Wilson|
|WI||Democratic retention||Tammy Baldwin||Tommy Thompson|
One Governor's race and several House races are still to be decided as of today; we will report on those results when they are known.
|Presidential prediction: Nov. 3, 2012|
OnTheIssues.org predicts that President Obama will win re-election by an electoral margin of 279-259.We predict that the popular vote will be much closer, with Romney holding Obama to under 50% of thepopular vote. Hence we predict that the pundits will claim that the third party candidates acted as"spoilers" in this race. This map summarizes our prediction, or click for state-by-state prediction.
We base our prediction on Obama's state-by-state victories in 2008, modified by the redistricting changes due to the 2010 census, and then further modified by several special considerations, including:
|House prediction: Oct. 28, 2012|
OnTheIssues predicts the Democrats will gain 7 House seats, leaving control of the United States House of Representatives in Republican hands, 235-200. Our evidence is laid out below.
So why do the Democratic pundits claim that they can gain the 25 seats necessary for their party to gain control of the House? For example, the Kansas City Star on Oct. 24, 2012, cites a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spokesperson saying "The Republican majority is in jeopardy," and expressing that he is "confident that his party can buck the odds and pick up the 25 seats needed to regain control of the House of Representatives." Let's look at the sort of evidence they present, starting with the current party split -- a large Republican majority -- of 242R-193D.
OnTheIssues conducted a "vulnerability analysis" which found 26 vulnerable Republican incumbents. If all of them lose, the Democrats would gain the House majority -- it would result in a House split with a slight Democratic majority, 217R-218D.
But of course that's only a half-truth, because some Democrats are vulnerable also. Our same analysis for vulnerable Democrats knocks down the Dems' hopes to a weaker Republican majority, 230R-205D.
But it's even worse than that, due to redistricting. The 2010 census takes effect in this House election -- and will cost the Democrats another 6 seats. Some special considerations reduce that by one loss, making our final prediction 235R-200D.
OnTheIssues does not claim to be prognosticators -- but we do claim to have real substantiation for our prediction, especially when compared to the hocus-pocus of other pundits. Our vulnerability analysis has worked to identify incumbents in our local State House who have been ousted; the redistricting analysis is complicated but accurate. We would be very shocked if the Democrats do better than 230R-205D or if the Republicans do any better than 240R-195D. More extreme results than that would indicate a "landslide mandate" for one party over the other.
|Romney and Obama Third and final Debate: Oct. 22, 2012|
|Romney and Obama Second Debate: Oct. 16, 2012|
|Biden and Ryan Debate: Oct. 11, 2012|
|Romney and Obama First Debate: Oct. 3, 2012|
|Senate race prediction: Oct. 1, 2012|
Following are the OnTheIssues predictions for each Senate race nationwide. 33 Senate seats (out of 100) are up for election in 2012, but 23 of those seats are currently held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans. That means the Democrats have more to lose in 2012 -- but the Dems also hold the majority in the Senate, 53-47.
To gain control of the Senate, the Republicans must gain 4 seats. We arrange the chart below based on which Senate seats we predict will stay in the same party and which will change hands:
|State||Prediction||Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser|
|AZ||Democratic takeover||Richard Carmona||Jeff Flake|
|CA||Democratic retention||Dianne Feinstein||Elizabeth Emken|
|CT||Republican takeover||Linda McMahon||Chris Murphy|
|I drive throughout Connecticut for my daily business, and I see a dozen "Linda" signs every hour, in every corner of the state, whereas seeing one Murphy sign per day is a lot. While signs don't vote, the lawn owners do, and they seem overwhelming.|
|DE||Democratic retention||Tom Carper||Kevin Wade|
|FL||Republican takeover||Connie Mack IV||Bill Nelson|
|Paul Ryan's strong stance for Medicare/Medicaid overhaul hurts the Romney-Ryan ticket in Florida, and we therefore predict Obama will win Florida based on the large elderly population in this key state. But Florida voters prefer bipartisanship and therefore Sen. Nelson will suffer from "negative coattails."|
|HI||Democratic retention||Mazie Hirono||Linda Lingle|
|IN||Republican retention||Richard Mourdock||Joe Donnelly|
|Oct. 26 update: Mourdock stumbled by saying in a debate that pregnancy rape was "God's will," which infuriated women's groups, but we do not see any change in the underlying dynamics that favor a conservative Senator to represent conservative Indiana.|
|MA||Democratic takeover||Elizabeth Warren||Scott Brown|
|Obama will overwhelmingly beat Romney in blue-state Massachusetts, and we predict Warren will ride Obama's coattails to victory. Sen. Brown won in a special election -- when there were no presidential coattails -- and would probably win again if this were not a presidential election year -- but the coattails are just too long against him in 2012.|
|MD||Democratic retention||Ben Cardin||Dan Bongino|
|ME||Democratic takeover||Angus King||Charlie Summers|
|Gov. King is an independent but we predict he will win and then choose to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate, in effect gaining the Democrats one Senate vote. King is a true independent, but sides with the Democrats on healthcare, social issues, and the need for taxes to deal with the deficit -- key upcoming voting issues for Senators.|
|MI||Democratic retention||Debbie Stabenow||Pete Hoekstra|
|MN||Democratic retention||Amy Klobuchar||Kurt Bills|
|MO||Democratic retention||Claire McCaskill||Todd Akin|
|During the summer, we would have predicted a Republican victory in red-state Missouri, but Rep. Akin put his foot in his mouth and exacerbated the problem with yet more flubs with every passing week -- he blew it!|
|MS||Republican retention||Roger Wicker||Albert N. Gore|
|MT||Republican takeover||Denny Rehberg||Jon Tester|
|ND||Democratic retention||Heidi Heitkamp||Rick Berg|
|North Dakota's economy is booming due to new oil extraction. So this Senate race is missing the usual drag on Obama and the Democrats, that the economy is bad elsewhere and that the Democrats would limit oil extraction elsewhere -- and Hietkamp will benefit.|
|NE||Republican takeover||Deb Fischer||Bob Kerrey|
|NJ||Democratic retention||Bob Menendez||Joe Kyrillos|
|NM||Republican takeover||Heather Wilson||Martin Heinrich|
|NV||Republican retention||Dean Heller||Shelley Berkley|
|NY||Democratic retention||Kirsten Gillibrand||Wendy Long|
|OH||Democratic retention||Sherrod Brown||Josh Mandel|
|Voter registration is an issue in many states but none more than in Ohio. As a result of the heavy-handed election-day voter suppression in minority districts in the 2004 election, Ohio Democrats have pushed voter registration and early voting (beginning Oct. 2) -- and Sen. Brown will benefit.|
|PA||Democratic retention||Bob Casey||Tom Smith|
|RI||Democratic retention||Sheldon Whitehouse||Barry Hinckley|
|TN||Republican retention||Bob Corker||Mark Clayton|
|TX||Republican retention||Ted Cruz||Paul Sadler|
|UT||Republican retention||Orrin Hatch||Scott Howell|
|VA||Democratic retention||Tim Kaine||George Allen|
|Gov. Allen seems to have recovered from his "macaca" gaffe in 2006, but he has run the nastiest campaign in the country, and we predict that many will vote against him to signal a dislike for negative campaigning.|
|VT||Democratic retention||Bernie Sanders||John MacGovern|
|WA||Democratic retention||Maria Cantwell||Michael Baumgartner|
|WI||Republican takeover||Tommy Thompson||Tammy Baldwin|
|The Tommy-Tammy race is one of the tightest in the country, but we predict a Republican victory based on Paul Ryan's coattails. While Wisconsin is a blue state, many independents will vote Republican on the presidential line based on Ryan's "favorite son" status, and will push that pattern downballot to the Senate race.|
|WV||Democratic retention||Joe Manchin III||John Raese|
|WY||Republican retention||John Barrasso||Tim Chesnut|
To summarize our prediction by party status:
The more likely scenario is that one of our predictions goes the other way: The most likely? Connecticut, where a wrestling executive takes on a long-term Congressman. And then Indiana, where a Tea Party Republican beat the incumbent Senator in the GOP primary. If either of those races goes against our prediction, the Democrats maintain control of the Senate. But a 50-50 split is MUCH more fun!
A 50-50 split means that control of the Senate is determined by the presidential race: If Romney wins the Presidency, Paul Ryan would get the tie-breaking vote in the Senate; if Obama wins re-election, Joe Biden retains his tie-breaking Senate vote. So stay tuned for our House and presidential prediction next week....