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Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues
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(Feb. 2016)
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State of the Union address
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Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
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CNN GOP Nevada debate
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Syrian Refugee crisis
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CNN Democrat debate
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Fox/Facebook GOP debate
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Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback June 2015)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul On the Issues
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Rand Paul vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback April 2015)

Jeb vs. Hillary On the Issues
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Rand vs. Ron Paul On the Issues
(Chart April 2015)

Hillary vs. Bill Clinton On the Issues
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Jeb vs. George Bush On the Issues
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Excerpts from "Immigration Wars"
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End the Fed

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2015-16 Election Coverage
2016-17 Cabinet nominations
2016 Presidential Election Prediction
2016 Senate Election Prediction
2016 House Election Prediction
Third 2016 Presidential debate
Second 2016 Presidential debate
2016 Vice-Presidential debate
First 2016 Presidential debate
2016 Presidential Election Coverage
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2015-16 Gubernatorial Election Coverage
     

Recent analyses...
Hillary clinches; Trump claims to clinch (April 26)
Abraham Lincoln LOST his first ballot in 1860? (April 16)
How are delegates selected? (April 3)
What is a "second ballot"? (March 22)
Are the primaries democracy? (answer: No; March 15)
U.S. Insular Territories get to vote? (answer: Yes; March 12)
What are "winner-take-all" primaries? (March 8)
What is a "brokered convention"? (March 6)
Super Saturday (March 5-8, 2016)
Super Tuesday (March 1, 2016)
Supreme Court vacancy (Feb. 13, 2016)
Nomination prediction (Jan. 1, 2016)


Senate debates (2016 election)
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Gubernatorial debates (2015-2016-2017 elections):
DE  -   IN  -   KY  -   LA  -   MO  -   MS  -   MT  -   NC  -   ND  -   NH  -   NJ  -   OR  -   UT  -   VA  -   VT  -   WA  -   WV  -      
   

Cabinet nominations: Dec. 4, 2016

Who will get nominated? Actual accouncements plus speculation

Source: PoliticalWire.com and numerous news source.
For more: Cabinet Members On the Issues.


Prediction versus results: Nov. 28, 2016

OnTheIssues.org predictions as bad as everyone else's in 2016

CATEGORYACTUAL OUTCOMEPREDICTIONSTATUS
Presidential electoral counts: Hillary Clinton 232;
Donald Trump 306;
Evan McMullin 0
Hillary Clinton 372;
Donald Trump 160;
Evan McMullin 6
Recounts still underway in MI, WI, and PA
Party control of U.S. House: Democrats gain 6 seats, leaving Republican majority of 241-194. Democrats gain 25 seats, leaving Republican majority of 222-213. Two runoff elections pending in Louisiana on Dec. 10; both have retiring Republican incumbents
Party control of U.S. Senate: Democrats gain 2 seats, leaving Republican majority of 52-48. Democrats gain 6 seats, winning Democratic majority of 52-48. One runoff elections pending in Louisiana on Dec. 10
Party control of Governorships: Republicans gain 3 seats, leaving Republican majority of 34-!6. OnTheIssues made no prediction but it would have been just as inaccurate as above! One gubernatorial outcome still being contested in courts, in North Carolina

We predicted that the polls were systemically inaccurate in the Democrats' favor because they discounted get-out-the-vote efforts by Hillary. In fact, the polls were systemically inaccurate in the Republicans' favor because they discounted many voters who would not tell the pollsters their vote.

For more: House outcomes by contest, Senate outcomes by contest and Gubernatorial outcomes by contest.


Presidential prediction: Oct. 28, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats win 372-160

Electoral counts: Hillary Clinton 372; Donald Trump 160; Evan McMullin 6
  • OnTheIssues predicts a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, 372-160 electoral votes.

  • Some points of interest:

  • We predict that Evan McMullin will win Utah and its 6 electoral votes.

  • That would be the first electoral vote victory for a 3rd-party candidate since George Wallace in 1968.

  • Even if McMullin loses Utah, he will most likely come in second place, the first time a non-major party has come in second since Ross Perot in 1992.

  • We predict that Hillary will turn blue many traditionally red states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

  • We do not predict that Hillary will turn Texas blue -- but the pundits love that possibility and will talk about it endlessly on election night.

  • When the polls close at 8 PM on election night, the bellweather states are PA, GA, and NC -- if those three fall to Hillary, our map will be pretty accurate for the rest of the country.

  • Nebrasks and Maine split their electoral votes; we predict both will do so, with the urban areas going for Hillary and the rural areas for Trump.

  • Methodology:

  • As with our Senate Prediction and House Prediction, our preliminary analysis is "meta-analysis" of polls, summing up the results of numerous credible statewide polls nationwide.

  • Then we apply political intuition as to why the polls are systemically over-counting or under-counting in their results (for example, the polls in 2008 and 2012 systemically under-counted turnout among minority voters and young voters -- our intuitive effort here is to predict those sorts of systemic errors for 2016).

  • There are two core systemic errors for 2016 that the polls cannot capture: increased turnout among youth and minorities (which favors Hillary Clinton), and decreased GOTV efforts by the Republican Party (which disfavors Donald Trump).

  • The Clinton campaign is currently attempting to increase youth turnout by deploying Bernie Sanders and is also currently attempting to increase minority turnout by deploying Barack Obama. We do not think these efforts will be very successful -- Hillary simply does not appeal to youth like Bernie Sanders does, and does not appeal to minorities like Barack Obama does. Her efforts will succeed at avoiding these groups voting for Trump, but we predict the usual historically low turnout, unlike the very high youth turnout enjoyed by Sanders in the 2016 primaries and the historically high minority turnout enjoyed by Obama in 2012.

  • Bottom line on youth and minorities: the polls will get it right: youth and minorities will vote overwhelmingly for Hillary over Trump, but will have under-whelming turnout at the polls.

  • The Trump campaign is attempting to overcome lackluster participation by Republican Party officials nationwide -- we explore this problem in detail in our commentary on the second presidential debate. Lackluster Republican Party participation in the presidential campaign means that "GOTV efforts" -- "Get Out The Vote" on election day -- will be severely hampered by having only half the number of Republican volunteers compared to Democratic volunteers. This "GOTV failure" will cost Trump 3% or 4% on Election Day -- and the daily tracking polls do NOT account for this!

  • Bottom line on Republican GOTV: If the polls indicate that Trump is only ahead by 2% or 3% in a particular state, it is likely that Hillary will win that state due to superior Democratic GOTV. Trump has consistently complained that the Republican Party has not done its fair share -- we agree, and we think that will cost Trump the election!

For more: Hillary Clinton On the Issues and Donald Trump On the Issues .


House of Representatives prediction: Oct. 26, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Republicans hold their House majority by 5 seats

    Currently the GOP holds a House majority of 30 seats. OnTheIssues predicts that the Democrats will gain a substantial number of seats in the House, but not quite enough to overcome the Republican majority. Our summary prediction first:
  1. Category A: First we list 27 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
  2. Category B: Then we list 2 Democrat-held districts where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 25 turnovers, 5 fewer than is needed for a Democratic majority.
  3. Category C: 15 Republican-held House districts where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat in a tight race.
  4. Category D: 3 Democratic-held House districts where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat in a tight race.
We predict that for all 388 other districts not listed here, the incumbent party will maintain its seat.

Net result: House control is maintained by the GOP, with a Republican majority of 247-188 slipping to a weaker majority of 222-213.

    • Category B: 2 Democratic-held districts where we predict a Republican win
    • Florida 2 (R+11) Gwen Graham (retiring); takeover by Ken Sukhia
    • Florida 18 (Even) Patrick Murphy (retiring); takeover by Randy Perkins
    • Category C: 15 hotly-contested Republican-held districts where we predict the Republican will hold the seat
      * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August
    • Arizona 2 (R+9) Martha McSally survives challenge by Victoria Steele
    • Colorado 3 (R+8) Scott Tipton survives challenge by Gail Schwartz
    • Florida 27 (R+11) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen survives challenge by Scott Fuhrman
    • Illinois 12 (R+9) Mike Bost survives challenge by C.J. Baricevic
    • Iowa 3 (R+7) David Young survives challenge by Jim Mowrer
    • Michigan 6 (R+11) Fred Upton survives challenge by Paul Clements
    • Michigan 8 (R+9) Mike Bishop survives challenge by Suzanna Shkreli
    • Michigan 11 (R+4) Dave Trott survives challenge by Former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (who would caucus R)
    • Minnesota 3 (R+5) Erik Paulsen survives challenge by State Sen. Terri Bonoff
    • New York 1 (R+7) Lee Zeldin survives challenge by Anna E. Throne-Holst
    • New York 23 (R+9) Tom Reed survives challenge by John Plumb
    • Pennsylvania 6 (R+11) Ryan Costello survives challenge by Mike Parrish
    • Pennsylvania 16 (R+7) Joe Pitts survives challenge by Christina Hartman
    • Virginia 5 (R+6) Robert Hurt survives challenge by Jane Dittmar
    • Washington 8 (R+4) Dave Reichert survives challenge by Santiago Ramos
    • Category D: 3 hotly-contested Democratic-held districts where we predict the Democrat will hold the seat
      * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August
    • Arizona 1 (D+4) Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring); Tom O'Halleran survives challenge by Paul Babeu and Former Secretary of state Ken Bennett
    • Nebraska 2 (D+3) Brad Ashford survives challenge by Don Bacon
    • New York 3 (D+11) Steve Israel survives challenge by Jack Martins
    Prediction methodology
  • We use a "meta-analysis" of looking at the averages of several polls simultaneously (not using partisan voting history in the district as in our earlier prediction). Such analyses are available on Wikipedia and in numerous other sources.
  • First we determine "competitive" districts, where several polling organizations indicate that the incumbent party might lose.
  • Then we look at the actual opponents; they must meet several criteria:
  • They must have a web presence (a professional campaign website, and presence in newspaper reports)
  • They must have an "issues" section on their website (we refuse to predict any candidate can win without a platform -- and we found MANY such candidates!)
  • They must be within "striking distance," i.e. within 4 percentage points, a typical margin-of-error on polls.
  • Meeting those criteria "certifies" a challenger as winnable and hence in Category A or B; our theory is that 2016 is a "change election" and any seriously-challenged incumbent will lose if the polls indicate "even" or a challenger slightly behind.

For more: Members of the House of Representatives On the Issues.


Senate prediction: Oct. 23, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats take a Senate majority by 2 seats

Our state-by-state analysis of the Senate is presented below; we predict a 2-seat majority by the Democrats.
    Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a Senate majority of 4 seats.
  1. Category A: First we list 7 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
  2. Category B: Then we list 1 Democrat-held district where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 6 turnovers, 2 more than is needed for a Democratic majority.
  3. Category C: 17 Republican-held Senate seats where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat.
  4. Category D: 9 Democratic-held Senate seats where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat.
  5. Net result: Senate control switches from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48.

For more: Members of the Senate On the Issues.


Third presidential debate: Oct. 19, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton debate in Las Vegas

Excerpts and fact-checking from the third debate:

  • Donald Trump on Abortion: Not acceptable to rip baby from womb in 9th month.
  • Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: We're dying at 1% GDP growth; we don't make things anymore.
  • Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: I fought illegal dumping of Chinese steel and aluminum.
  • Donald Trump on Free Trade: I disagreed with Ronald Reagan on trade; we need better
  • Evan McMullin on Free Trade: Consistent conservative in favor of free trade.
  • Hillary Clinton on Government Reform: Unprecedented Russian interference in presidential election.
  • Jill Stein on Government Reform: We need ranked-choice voting in presidential elections.
  • Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, voted for a partial wall on Mexican border
  • Donald Trump FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, Hillary would increase Syrian refugees by 550%
What about the supposedly all-important assertion by Donald Trump that he won't accept the results of the election? (It's there in our excerpts; Hillary called it "horrifying" and the mainstream media has harped on about it endlessly).

Well, here's what that really means: NOTHING.

What happens if Hillary is declared the winner on election night and Trump never concedes? NOTHING.

What happens if Trump NEVER accepts the election results? NOTHING.

All of these seemingly important events -- Hillary being declared the winner; Trump calling with a concession speech; the loser "accepting" the election results -- none of these matter one bit. Do you know what the U.S. Constitution says about all of those things? NOTHING.

The Constitution is clear on how presidential elections ACTUALLY work:

  • Each state determines the winner of the electoral votes in that state (by the Secretary of State certifying the result, or various terminology analogous to that).
  • If Trump actually wants to DO something to "not accept the election results," he would have to file a lawsuit in individual states where the election was close enough to warrant that -- TK34 states allow that.
  • 20TK states have an automatic recount process if there's a tight enough margin -- that's what occurred in Florida in 2000 -- otherwise Trump has to pay for a recount.
  • Trump can file those lawsuits regardless of whether he concedes on election night or not (you might recall that in 2000, Al Gore DID concede, and then called George W. Bush back to "rescind" his concession -- but none of that really mattered Constitutionally -- filing his lawsuit the next day DID matter -- that led to the case "Bush v. Gore" that went to the Supreme Court).
  • There are rules in each state about how close the results have to be, to allow filing a lawsuit like that -- Trump can do so, individually in each state, and that would delay certification in THAT state, but not in any other states.
  • After the Secretaries of State certify each state's results, the "Electoral College" meets to finalize the presidential election -- regardless of Trump's "acceptance" of the results or not -- that's what the Constitution is all about.
  • Let's say Hillary wins with 372 electoral votes on election night -- with 270 needed to win, that means Trump would have to file lawsuits in states adding up to at least 102 electoral votes (that's at least a half-dozen mid-size states) in order to delay the Electoral College from voting regardless of some states being delayed.
  • So when you hear the mainstream media harping on about Trump "threatening democracy," you might refer them to the U.S. Constitution -- it's all laid out clearly in Article II, without any reference to "acceptance" or "concession" or anything else -- and nothing Trump has said is any threat to that!

For more: Excerpts from third presidential debate.


Second presidential debate: Oct. 9, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debate at Washington University

Excerpts and fact-checking from the second debate:

  • Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: U.S. 1% growth is almost no growth, and due to high taxes.
  • Hillary Clinton on Corporations: I voted to close corporate tax loopholes that Trump used.
  • Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Energy & Oil: US not yet quite energy-independent.
  • Donald Trump on Families & Children: I have great respect for women; despite locker-room talk.
  • Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: Trade prosecutor to deal with China illegally dumping steel.
  • Donald Trump on Health Care: ObamaCare will never work; repeal it and replace it.
  • Donald Trump on Homeland Security: Replace a Muslim ban with an extreme vetting of Muslims.
  • Donald Trump on Immigration: Border agents endorsed me because I understand the border.
  • Hillary Clinton on Principles & Values: I've produced results in my 30 years of public service.
  • Donald Trump FactCheck on Tax Reform: Cutting carried interest gains $18B in revenue.
  • Mike Pence FactCheck on War & Peace: Pence says pressure Assad; Trump focuses on ISIS.

For more: Excerpts from second presidential debate.


Vice-presidential debate: Oct. 4, 2016

Republican Mike Pence vs. Democrat Tim Kaine, plus commentary and fact-checking

An estimated 37 million people watched the vice-presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts:

  • Tim Kaine on Budget & Economy: We tried Trump tax plan in 2000s: it caused Great Recession.
  • Mike Pence on Crime: Law enforcement is not a force for racism or division.
  • Donald Trump on Foreign Policy: FactCheck: Japan should defend itself, including with nukes.
  • Mike Pence on Foreign Policy: America's place in the world is weakened.
  • Tim Kaine on Immigration: No "deportation force" going door-to-door to deport 16M.
  • Tim Kaine on Jobs: Trump is "You're fired"; Hillary is "You're hired".
  • Bill Weld on Principles & Values: Trump's agenda is hurtful to America & the world.
  • Donald Trump on Principles & Values: A businessman, not a lifelong politician.
  • Mike Pence on Principles & Values: Serve based on a lifetime of experience from small towns.
  • Tim Kaine: I bring experience of service at all levels of government.
  • Tim Kaine on Social Security: Never, ever risk Social Security with privatization.
  • Mike Pence on Social Security: We're going to meet our obligations to our seniors.
  • Donald Trump on Social Security: FactCheck: Yes, "privatization would be good for all of us".
  • Mike Pence on Tax Reform: Lower taxes across the board, and we'll get growth.
  • Tim Kaine on War & Peace: We now have fewer troops abroad & reduced Iranian threat.

For more: Excerpts from the Vice-Presidential debate.


First presidential debate: Sept. 26, 2016

Excerpts from first presidential debate at Hofstra University

An estimated 81 million people watched the first presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts:

  • Hillary Clinton on Budget & Economy: No trumped-up trickle-down: reward work, not transactions.
  • Donald Trump on Crime: Stop-and-frisk worked very well in NYC.
  • Hillary Clinton on Crime: Stop-and-frisk is ineffective as well as unconstitutional.
  • Donald Trump on Energy & Oil: America invested in solar panels and it was a disaster.
  • Donald Trump on Families & Children: Hillary and I agree on paid family leave.
  • Donald Trump on Tax Reform: Not paying income taxes makes me smart.

For more: Excerpts from first presidential debate.


House prediction: Sept. 20, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Dick Cheney's daughter elected to U.S. House

Former Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter is running for Congress in Wyoming -- and OnTheIssues predicts that she will win. Some additional coverage of hot Congressional races below -- all of whom are challengers and all of whom we predict will win in November. They are mostly Democrats but we're sticking with our earlier prediction that the Republicans will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. We will cover the rest of the new members of the U.S. House once they are elected in November.

For more: Members of the U.S. House On the Issues.


Final Senate candidates: Sept. 10, 2016

Joe Miller announces candidacy; OnTheIssues closes candidate list

Former Republican nominee Joe Miller made a late entry into the Alaska Senate race to take on his nemesis Lisa Murkowski; he will bear the Libertarian banner, which was yielded to him from Cean Stevens. At this late date, OnTheIssues considers our Senate candidate list completed -- Joe Miller was a very late exception. The rest of the new entrants below are late primary winners and third-party nominees. OnTheIssues has "closed" the list of candidates so we can spend the rest of the election providing deeper coverage of the candidates we are covering.

For more: Senatorial candidates On the Issues.


Senate prediction: Aug. 31, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats take a Senate majority by 3 seats

The mainstream media is full of reports of how the U.S. Senate might turn Democratic, because national polls or prediction models show that Democrats are ahead, perhaps by enough to make up the 4-seat deficit they currently suffer. That sort of prediction is ridiculous.

Smart voters know that national polls are irrelevant to individual Senate races -- the only way to analyze Senate races is by making predictions in individual states. We at OnTheIssues.org have done the state-by-state analysis, which we present below, followed by our scoring criteria (below our House prediction) so you can apply your own analysis later.

    Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a Senate majority of 4 seats.
  1. Category A: First we list 5 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
  2. Category B: Then we list 4 Republican-held districts where we make a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover, meaning we predict that 2 will turn Democratic. That totals to 7 districts turning from Republican to Democrat -- which is enough to overcome the current 4-seat Republican majority.
  3. Category C: But finally, we list 1 Democrat-held districts where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 6 turnovers, 2 more than is needed for a Democratic majority.

For more: Members of the Senate On the Issues.


House of Representatives prediction: Aug. 23, 2016

OnTheIssues.org prediction: Republicans hold their House majority by 2 seats

The mainstream media is full of reports of how the U.S. House of Representatives might turn Democratic, because national polls or a generic ballot show that Democrats are ahead, perhaps by enough to make up the 30-seat deficit they currently suffer. That sort of prediction is ridiculous.

Smart voters know that national polls are irrelevant to individual House races -- the only way to analyze House races is by making predictions in individual districts. Just about everyone in the mainstream media is too lazy or too ignorant to undertake that analysis, because it is hard work. We at OnTheIssues.org have done the district-by-district analysis, which we present below, followed by our scoring criteria so you can apply your own analysis later.

    Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a House majority of 30 seats.
  1. Category A: First we list 24 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
  2. Category B: Then we list 18 Republican-held districts where we make a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover, meaning we predict that 9 will turn Democratic. That totals to 33 districts turning from Republican to Democrat -- which is enough to overcome the current 30-seat Republican majority.
  3. Category C: But finally, we list 5 Democrat-held districts where we predict a sure Republican win -- which means a net 28 turnovers, 2 shy of the majority.
    Category B: 18 Republican-held districts where we predict a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover (net gain of 9 Democrats)
  • California 10 (R+1) Jeff Denham 50/50 chance of losing to Michael Eggman
  • California 25 (R+3) Steve Knight 50/50 chance of losing to Bryan Caforio
  • California 49 (R+4) Darrell Issa 50/50 chance of losing to Doug Applegate
  • Colorado 3 (R+5) Scott Tipton 50/50 chance of losing to Gail Schwartz
  • Florida 7 (R+2) John Mica 50/50 chance of losing to Stephanie Murphy
  • Florida 27 (R+1) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 50/50 chance of losing to Scott Fuhrman
  • Illinois 12 (Even) Mike Bost 50/50 chance of losing to C.J. Baricevic
  • Michigan 8 (R+2) Mike Bishop 50/50 chance of losing to Suzanna Shkreli
  • Michigan 11 (R+4) Dave Trott 50/50 chance of losing to Anil Kumar
  • Minnesota 2 (R+2) John Kline (retiring); 50/50 chance of takeover by John Howe
  • New Jersey 5 (R+4) Scott Garrett 50/50 chance of losing to Josh Gottheimer
  • New York 1 (R+2) Lee Zeldin 50/50 chance of losing to Anna E. Throne-Holst
  • New York 22 (R+3) Richard Hanna (retiring); 50/50 chance of takeover by Kim A. Myers
  • New York 23 (R+3) Tom Reed 50/50 chance of losing to John Plumb
  • Pennsylvania 6 (R+2) Ryan Costello 50/50 chance of losing to Mike Parrish
  • Pennsylvania16 (R+4) Joe Pitts 50/50 chance of losing to Christina Hartman
  • Virginia 5 (R+5) Robert Hurt 50/50 chance of losing to Jane Dittmar
  • Washington 8 (R+1) Dave Reichert 50/50 chance of losing to Santiago Ramos
    Category C: 5 Democratic-held districts where we predict a sure Republican win
  • Arizona 1 (R+4) Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring); takeover by Former Secretary of state Ken Bennett
  • Florida 2 (R+18) Gwen Graham (retiring); takeover by Ken Sukhia
  • Florida 18 (R+3) Patrick Murphy (retiring); takeover by Randy Perkins
  • Nebraska 2 (R+4) Brad Ashford loses to Don Bacon
  • New York 3 (Even) Steve Israel loses to Jack Martins
    Prediction methodology
  1. We use a "meta-analysis" of looking at the averages of several polls simultaneously, as well as the partisan voting history in the district. Such analyses are available on Wikipedia and in numerous other sources.
  2. First we determine "competitive" districts, where several polling organizations indicate that the incumbent party might lose.
  3. Then we look at the actual opponents; they must meet several criteria:
  4. They must have a web presence (a professional campaign website, and presence in newspaper reports)
  5. They must have an "issues" section on their website (we refuse to predict any candidate can win without a platform -- and we found MANY such candidates!)
  6. They must be within "striking distance," i.e. within 4 percentage points, a typical margin-of-error on polls.
  7. Meeting those criteria "certifies" a challenger as winnable and hence in Category A; missing one puts them into the 50-50 category B
  8. Previous elective office moves a candidate upward; the scale shifts to 5 percentage points.
  9. Applying these same criteria in October might yield somewhat different results; we will re-run the analysis then, but you can re-run it yourself, including the judgment call of category assignment.

For more: Members of the House of Representatives On the Issues.


Mike Pence vs. Tim Kaine On the Issues: Aug. 8, 2016

Issue coverage of vice-presidential candidates

OnTheIssues has published on Amazon our issues-based coverage of the vice-presidential candidates in comparison to the presidential candidates. A sample:

On International IssuesTim KaineHillary ClintonDonald TrumpMike Pence
Pathway to citizenship for illegal aliensstrongly favorsfavorsstrongly opposesstrongly opposes
Support & expand free trade favorsmixed opinionopposesstrongly favors
Support American Exceptionalism strongly opposesopposesfavorsstrongly favors
Expand the military strongly favorsmixed opinionstrongly favorsstrongly favors
Avoid foreign entanglements favorsopposesfavors opposes

For more: Donal Trump & Mike Pence vs. Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.


Democratic National Convention: July 25-28, 2016

Hillary Clinton picks Sen. Tim Kaine (D, VA) for Vice President

For more: Trump vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.


Republican National Convention: July 18-21, 2016

Donald Trump picks Gov. Mike Pence (R, OH) for Vice President

For more: Trump vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.


One resignation, one special election, one death: June 9-30, 2016

5th resignation from 114th Congress

For more: Donal Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jill Stein (G) vs. Gary Johnson (L) On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.


Final Primaries: June 4-7, 2016

Hillary Clinton clinches Democratic nomination; Trump clinches GOP nomination

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on June 4,5, and 7:
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                        Hillary     Bernie     |  Donald     Ted      John     Withdrawn     Uncommitted
                        Clinton     Sanders    |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich    Candidates    Delegates
California Primary       270         199       |   169         0         0         0             0
Montana Primary           10          11       |    27         0         0         0             0
North Dakota Primary       5          13       |
New Jersey Primary        75          47       |    51         0         0         0             0
New Mexico Primary        18          16       |    24         0         0         0             0
South Dakota Primary      10          10       |    29         0         0         0             0
Puerto Rico Primary       36          24       |
Virgin Islands Caucus      6           1       |
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===       ===          =====
Total elected delegates on Final Primary, June 4-7:
                          430        321           300         0         0                       0
Previous elected delegates:
                        2,144      1,285           966       540       148       209            54
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47           106
                        --------------------     ---------------------------------------------------
Grand Total:            3,041      1,633         1,274       558       152       256           160
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

For more: Donal Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jill Stein (G) vs. Gary Johnson (L) On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.


Libertarian Party Convention: May 28-29, 2016

Libertarians nominate two former Governors

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson seized the Libertarian nomination for president at the party’s national convention this weekend and escaped a hotly contested convention with his hand-picked running mate, former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld.

The pair form a political team of two former Republican governors that Johnson declared to be the most formidable third-party ticket in the modern era, one that he promised would thrust Libertarians from the fringe of American politics to “major party status” in a period of widespread mistrust of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton registering as two of the least liked and most mistrusted politicians in the country, many Libertarians see an opening — and a desire — for an alternative. And Johnson is the only other candidate likely to appear on the ballot in every state.

Raising more money is supposed to be the big advantage of selecting Weld, who served as a fundraiser for Mitt Romney. “He really likes fundraising and he’s connected,” Johnson said. “And I really hate fundraising and I’m not connected.”

Their goal, in particular, is to loosen the wallets of the many disaffected and libertarian-leaning Republicans turned off by Trump’s bombastic rhetoric and shifting policy stands by offering them an alternative of two former Republican governors.

Most potential financiers of a Libertarian ticket understand the goal isn’t so much to win the White House but to spread their limited government, socially liberal, fiscally conservative, anti-war, pro-drug legalization message into the national consciousness.

“There’s no question that both Trump and Clinton are polarizing but for people to choose Gary Johnson they need to know that he’s running,” said Roger Stone, who advised Johnson’s Libertarian bid in 2012 and is now a supporter and informal adviser to Trump. “Four years ago, 75 percent of the voters told us they wished there was another choice. Well, there was another choice it’s just that nobody knew about it.”

Sources: Politico.com, "Can Libertarian nominees Gary Johnson and Bill Weld siphon votes from Trump?", By Shane Goldmacher, 5/29/16
Click for issue stances of presidential nominee Gary Johnson (L-NM) and vice-presidential nominee William Weld (L-MA).


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